Starting in the late fall of 2017 the Crown Isle real estate market started a steady climb. Prices moved upward throughout the next year but 2018 saw dramatic price swings on a monthly basis. Sales numbers dropped off quite a bit in some months because new listings and total inventory both fell as the prices moved upwards. So, what is next for the real estate market in this upscale subdivision of Courtenay?
In January 2019, there were 6 single family homes listed and no sales. This followed a month before where there was one listing and no sales. A year prior there were 2 listings and 2 sales in the same month. Prices topped out in August of 2018 when there were 2 new listing and 2 sales with a median sell price of more than one million dollars. Since then prices have softened and sales have dropped.
When one takes a look at the broader Crown Isle homes market over the course of 2018 there were 33 sales. As well, there were 20 homes listed for sale in 2018 that did not sell. The overall sales volume was down and the list to sell ratio dropped significantly (from about 85% to nearly 60%). It also took longer to sell many of the homes despite the overall inventory being down.
Some softening in the market was evident based on the lack of sales in the months of December 2018 and January 2019. If this trend continues into February and March, this high-end market should begin to see a reduction in prices despite a low overall inventory. While some Crown Isle buyers are local, quite a few come from outside of Vancouver Island. Home buyers from Alberta continue to face challenges selling their homes and buyers from the mainland are starting to see their crazy prices come down a bit and homes are sitting on their market longer than before. People who must sell in those markets before buying in this market are less wiling to buy before their home sells than they were last year. An increase in interest rates will only exacerbate the move towards a softer market that may no longer favor sellers.
Of the 33 homes that sold what type were they? Many of them were rancher style and newer (built within the past 10 years). While a few larger homes sold in 2018, many of them were in the 1800 to 2500 square foot range. Some were pure ranchers, others were rancher style with bonus rooms up. This style of home is the most popular home buyer choice. This is not surprising as many retiring and soon to retire people looking for a high-end neighbourhood are increasingly choosing Crown Isle as their location of choice from the BC mainland and other parts of Canada.
Looking ahead expect to see prices moderate, sales continue to be down from the peaks of a few years ago and choices to remain more limited than they have been in the past.