Home prices in the Town of Comox started their upward rise in the spring of 2016 and the rising trend remained strong through the summer of 2017. Thereafter the average percentage increase started to moderate and through the end of 2018. What is also interesting about these two distinct periods of time in the Comox real estate market is how close the median and average prices were in the more rapidly increasing time frame compared to the more moderate price increase period of time. There were significant differences in the Comox home price point metrics as well as significant variations of each on a month to month basis. Moving forward into 2019 a tapering off of the price increases we have see over the past 2 and ½ years is likely.
While these price increases occurred over an extended period of time the number of new listings and corresponding sales dropped after the peak in the more rapid price increase cycle. Fewer homes are coming onto the market and the overall inventory of homes is now much less than it has been since the time of the start of the price increases. How will demand from retiring Baby Boomers and people planning to relocated from the mainland change in 2019? Perhaps not much but they will be competing for a smaller number of homes.
Also, dramatically different at the end of this current cycle, is how limited the number of lots are in the local area. People coming to the area to buy a lot on which to build a home will be disappointed in the limited selection. Many people who have come before came here with the same idea and the selection is not going to expand in the near future. Aside from the Union Bay Estates development that should start to see lots and homes come on the market, other developments will be small in comparison to the only other larger home and property offering at Crown Isle which continues to progress towards the full development of its 871-acre property.
Nearby Courtenay will not be significantly different and it will be interesting to watch how the newly elected local government in that area sets out to deal with issues, such as increasing traffic congestion, that affect the entire local population. This local government needs to focus on governing and providing for the entire population and not spend too much time catering to small special interest groups at the expense of the larger needs of an aging population. Stay tuned for more on this issue because it has the potential to both directly and indirectly affect the Courtenay real estate market and outside investment in the market. Courtenay has the reputation as being pro business. Let’s hope that this continues to