The 2020 Courtenay real estate market has entered its second month. So, what has happened so far? In the downtown area of the city single-family-homes listings were down 39% in January and days to sell were up by 182% over the same time last year. In the eastern part of the city, single-family-home listings were down 21% and days to sell were up by 25%. In the north, listings were down by 50% and there were no sales in this area in the first month of this year. There was one sale in the south and listings were down by 33%. Listing were down by 50% in the west and there were no sales of single-family-homes in that area in January. The average single-family-home sale price was about $569 thousand. The average home sale price this month in Crown Isle was the highest of the areas at $719 thousand.

Condominium (apartments) averaged about $401 thousand, patio homes averaged about $371 thousand and townhomes averaged about $313 thousand dollars. Lots in the City of Courtenay averaged about $285,000. While the overall average sale price in the Comox Valley rose about 2% in January when compared to the same month a year ago, the overall number of sales dropped by 33%. One month is not a long enough period to confirm a trend but early indicators certainly do suggest changes in the Courtenay re-sale housing market.

In the first month of the year, Courtenay accounted for almost 64% of the total home sales so what happens in this city certainly will have an impact on the overall Comox Valley real estate market and where it is headed in 2020. Many of the typical indicators are down for the first part of the year. The next couple of months will be important to watch as the market continues to become active and listings are placed on the market. Indicators such as list to sell price, days on the market, average and median sale prices, price changes, trends in localized parts of the real estate market and inventory will all contribute to form the overall picture.

Will 2020 mark the end of the current cycle and seller’s market conditions? Will sales continue to be down from the same time last year? Will prices correct and reverse the trend of the past couple of years? Will the demand from the mainland remain strong? Will local buyers and sellers jump into the market. These are just a few of the many questions that can be asked about what will happen this year. There are, of course, a few other factors that may come into play. For example, On February 18, Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced changes to Guideline B-20, also known as the mortgage stress test. The new benchmark rate used to determine the minimum qualifying rate for insured mortgages, which takes effect on April 6, 2020, will be the weekly median five-year fixed insured mortgage rate from mortgage insurance applications, plus two per cent. Stay tuned for more on our 2020 real estate picture for the City of Courtenay and the overall Comox Valley region.

The 2020 real estate market in the town of Comox started off with a whimper. January home sales statistics are down from this same month last year. Let us start with single family home listings which were down 27%. Then look at sales that were down 67%. Sales dollars volume was down a massive 82%. Certainly, one month is only one data point but these data point, if they start to develop into a trend will mean a change in market and one that will move from sellers to buyers. Average sell price was also down about 25%.

By the end of January this local housing market is just getting started for the year and the next couple of months will tell us much more. With most things in life change is inevitable. The real estate market is not different because it often works within cycles and it is affected by any number of things including local effects. The Comox market has had a good run. The upward climb in prices began in the fall of 2015 and there some was price increase slowdown starting to show at the end of 2018 and again at the start of 2020. Small housing market rarely stay strong and favor sellers for very long but this one has done so over a period of about 4 years which for this micro market area is remarkable. However, the end of the trend may be near and a new trend may be about to begin.

Interestingly, there were no single-family waterfront or single-family strata or lots listed in the month of January. Overall market statistics were comparable to single-family homes. Overall listings were down 26%, sales down 59% and total dollar volume down 54%. The one bright spot was that the overall average sell price actually was up 13% compared to this time last year but this figure was still down from the fall of 2019 numbers. With a total of only 83 active listings, there is not much inventory to sustain market growth.

The average and median sell prices of a single-family home were $426 thousand and $410 thousand respectively. In contrast, the numbers for condo apartments were $744 thousand and $839 thousand with patio homes showing up in the middle of the two types of homes at $555 thousand. Perhaps this is also noteworthy. Are buyers starting to focus on a different type of home? Again, too early to tell based only on the out of the 2020 gate numbers but this is worth watching to see if buyer demographics are changing in this local area.

If this area of the Comox Valley sparks your interest this may be the year to drop by and check it out. The small-town charm is still there and so is the quality of life offered by the surrounding area whose landscape is replete with mountains, ocean and terrific flora and fauna. Sporting, recreational and social events are varied and offer the visitor and resident alike with many great options. These offerings are outmatched by the tremendous variety of homes available in the local area. Stop by and browse what could very well be your next home in a great area.

Happy new year and welcome to the Comox real estate market in 2020. This local market started climbing in price in the spring of 2016. While there was monthly variance along the way, prices have essentially steadily risen since that time until average and median prices dropped in December of 2019.

Within the Comox Valley, home sales dropped about 7% from 2018 to 2019 while the average sale price of homes rose from about $540,000 to $579,000. The average sale price of homes in Comox in 2019 was just over $570,000. In December, the average price of homes sold that month dropped to about $474,000.

There were 173 single family houses sold in the Town of Comox in 2019. Most homes sold in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range with the next most homes sold in the $350,000 to $400,000 price range. Strong sales numbers were also present in price ranges up to $800,000. Two homes sold for more than $1 million with the highest going at $1.225 million. The town of Comox represented just over 20% of the entire real estate market in the Comox Valley.

So, what about trends in 2019 compared to the previous year? First sell to list price ratios only dropped by one percent from 98 to 97. Days to sell increased from an average of 32 to 37. Average sale prices rose from about $559,000 to $570,000 and median prices rose to $560,000. Total listings dropped by 20% and total sales dropped by 18%.

2020 will be a very interesting year for real estate and house sales in the Town of Comox. Will the one month decline in prices become a trend? Will listings and sales continue their decline in numbers? At this point in time it is simply too soon to tell. Once the 2020 market starts it upward activity swing after the end of February we will have a lot more information with which to speculate which way this small but essential market will move. The town has grown but it still maintains the small-town character and charm for which it has been known. This seaside community still attracts many tourists each year and some of the visitors end up deciding to stay. They are often swayed by the appeal of the higher quality of life and slower pace offered when compared to larger cities like Vancouver and its suburbs.

If you are planning or relocating to Comox in 2020 it is not too soon to start looking in order to gain an appreciation of this local real estate market and the charm of the community.

The Crown Isle Resort and Golf Community is a jewel in the Comox Valley real estate market. While it only accounts for a small faction of the overall home sales in the Comox Valley, it does account for a significant number of high-end executive and luxury home sales.

For the past three years this segment of the real estate market has been through change and fluctuations. In 2017, the entry level for single-family homes in Crown Isle was about $600,000. Back then, home sales followed the cyclical cycle of most of the valley which meant that home sales started to rise in the February-March timeframe with peak home sales occurring in the May-June timeframe and sales dropping off by about mid November. In 2018, Prices started to rise significantly and both median and average prices fluctuated significantly throughout the year. In some months the swings month-to-month were in the $300,000 to $400,00 range. However, in 2019 the swings were much less severe and prices began moderating and home prices dropped off by the end of the year. Crown Isle single-family home prices started the year off at about the $830,000 price level. By mid year the median price was around $890,000 but by November the median sale price had dropped to $746,000.

Another interesting statistic concerning Crown Isle concerns homes priced at the million-dollar mark and above. Before 2010 there were two homes listed above $1 million and only one sold above that price point. The next million-dollar sale occurred in 2013 and there were four in 2018 and one so far in 2019. As of early December 2019, there were five homes listed for more than a million dollars and time on the market varied from 5 days to 114 days. Clearly, this luxury homes market has gone through some interesting cycles, particularly those of 2018 with the wild swings in prices month to month. As of the writing of this update, there were 36 homes of all types on the market in this golf course bordered community, and their time on the market ranged from 5 days to 325 days.

Yes, 2018 was a significant real estate year in Crown Isle but 2019 moved back to a more normal cycle and prices stabilized and even corrected downwards slightly is some segments of the home market by year end. The used home market was also in direct competition to a new home builders’ market that continued strongly as it moved to encircle Crown Isle Drive and extend down Crown Isle Boulevard towards the Comox Peninsula. Soon, the new homes market will taper off as lots for sale have dropped in numbers commensurate with this development approaching its capacity. As it tapers off, the next big home development in Union Bay may just be moving forward.

Courtenay is the largest community in the Comox Valley. It was home to 25,599 people according to the 2016 Census and it has been growing constantly since then. Naturally is would be expected to be, and does, drive the Comox Valley real estate market. This city accounted for 53.3% of the single-family homes sales in this region this year while comprising 38% of the population.

From a real estate perspective, there are five subareas in the City of Courtenay. These are Courtenay East with 18.4% of single-family home sales, Courtenay City with 18.1%, Courtenay South with 4.7%, Courtenay North with 4.4% and Courtenay West with 3.2%. Crown Isle adds another 4.5% and it is located in Courtenay East. The total volume of homes that changed hands this year is down a bit from last year but prices are up over last year. For example, Courtenay single-family home prices rose from an average of around $540,000 in November 2018 to about 580,000 in November 2019.

Courtenay City is essentially the downtown core area of the city and there were 11 single family homes listed in November 2019 compared to 25 the year prior.  Sales of this home type in this area were comparable between the two year with 10 sold in November 2018 compared to 11 in 2019. Days to Sell rose from 30 to 60 days. Courtenay East is located to the East of the Courtenay River and beyond the agricultural land located between Back Road and Comox Avenue. There were 7 single-family homes listed in November 2019 compared to 12 the year prior and fewer homes of this type were sold (8 compared to 12 the year prior). Courtenay North, in November 2019 had one home listed and 2 sold compared to 2 and 4 the year prior. The numbers for Courtenay South were 2 listed 1 sold in November 2019 compared to 4 listed and 1 sold in the same month the year before. As one can see from some of these numbers they are recorded in small in some areas and, as a result, one should be careful not to draw any conclusions based on a month or two of sales in some of the smaller areas. There are knowledgeable local area real estate experts who know the real estate market in the City of Courtenay and they can interpolate and extract information on the local market and its trends.

Besides listings sales. and price, other important home statistics include days to sell and inventory. These statistics often vary by area and home type. For example, the median selling price of a condo (apartment style) in the Comox Valley in November 2019 was 250,000 and they took an average of 94 days to sell compared to a year prior when they only took 37 days to sell. In contrast, single family homes took only slightly longer to sell in 2019 compared to 2018. Clearly, there are a significant number of statistics with which to analyze the Courtenay real estate market and one must be careful not to misinterpret what the market is actually telling us.

The year 2019 marked another change in the Comox real estate market. A total of 179 single family homes were listed in Comox year to date compared to 237 last year. Sales year to date (end of Oct) were 155 compared to 171 the year prior. Overall listings and inventory were down about 24% from last year while sales dropped only by about 9%. A higher percentage of the fewer homes on the market were sold this year compared to last year. With a lower inventory, buyers had less choice but the good homes sold relatively quickly while some of the less attractive homes sat on the market longer. Days to sell, on average rose from 48 to 60 days.

Home prices in Comox started climbing in the spring of 2016 and they rose fairly steadily until they levelled off by late summer of this year. The average and median prices for single family homes at the end of October was near $600K. By comparison, the average and median sales prices for condominiums was about $550K and $625K respectively while patio homes were at about $380K. With sales of all types of residential sales considered, the average prices rose by about 75K over the past year. This strong rise is significant for local residents because not only did prices increase, so did property tax assessments. In contrast, these prices remain attractive to mainland BC buyers.

Sell-to-list ratios varied considerably throughout the past year. In July of 2019 more homes sold than were listed yet in May only 5 of the 22 homes that were listed that month sold. Volatility was a hallmark of 2019 as prices bounced up and down each month along with activity and sales. The overall trend in Comox single family home prices was up from January through the fall when prices started to level off. This price leveling demonstrated that overall demand and the pressure it brings to a small market has dropped and that sellers who are listing above the market are finding this tactic is not working like it did earlier in the year. The number of competing offers has dropped as well.

So where is the market headed? Absent stronger pressure in the early spring from the mainland, prices should continue to level and perhaps correct downward somewhat. How much will be connected to how many listings hit the market early in the year. We should know a lot more about this and other trends by the late February to late March 2020 timeframe. Stay tuned for updates at that time.